📈 Special Report | Trucking’s Mid-Year Reality Check

A deep dive based on FTR Transportation Intelligence: Freight Focus – Trucking Update, July 2025

🧭 The 2025 Setup: A Fragile Recovery in Motion

The freight recession may be over, but the trucking industry isn’t out of the woods. According to FTR’s July report, volumes are slowly climbing, but confidence remains shaky. Not all sectors are recovering equally—and growth is uneven.

📉 Freight Volumes: Growing... Just Barely

Total freight volume is rising modestly, driven by imports and consumer goods. Flatbed and bulk remain soft, while TL and reefer hang steady. LTL continues to underperform due to inventory drawdowns and high rates.

🧠 Demand Outlook: Eyes on Q4

Hope hinges on retail restocking and holiday freight. Inventory-to-sales ratios are still high, so until shelves empty, don’t expect a surge. FTR predicts slow, cautious improvement in late 2025—with 2026 as the real inflection point.

📉 Rates: Bouncing Off the Bottom

Spot rates remain below breakeven for many small fleets. Contract rates are off by 4% YoY. If you haven’t diversified, margins are tight. Larger carriers with dedicated business are holding on—but growth is muted.

🚛 Carrier Conditions: Still Negative

FTR’s Carrier Conditions Index is still below zero. Fuel prices, weak rates, and operating costs keep pressure high. Most fleets are treading water, not swimming.

🛒 Capacity: Still Too Much Truck

Despite bankruptcies and fewer new orders, overcapacity persists. Many fleets are sitting on pandemic-era equipment. Used truck prices are down 35%—meaning many are holding onto assets longer than planned.

🔌 Efficiency Is the New Growth

Fleets that win in 2025 are cutting—not expanding. Focus is shifting to route optimization, driver efficiency, and bundling tech with maintenance. Cost per mile is the new KPI.

🧭 Risks to Watch

• Diesel price spikes
• Consumer spending drops
• Global trade disruptions

The recovery is fragile. Any shake-up could stall momentum quickly.

🔍 Final Take: Recovery Is Not Growth

This isn’t a comeback—it’s a recalibration. Recovery is in motion, but don’t confuse movement with momentum. The winners in this market won’t be the ones scaling fast—they’ll be the ones thinking smarter: cutting waste, managing risk, and staying light on their tires in an industry still figuring out which gear it’s in. Stop waiting for a boom. Adapt to the current climb.

Source:
FTR Transportation Intelligence
FTR Freight Focus: Trucking Update – July 2025
www.ftrintel.com